Thursday, February 14, 2008
Sunspots, War Cycles, and 2012
In November 2006, I published an article on the
relationship of War Cycles to the Sunspot cycle, a theory proposed by Alexander Chizhevsky in the early 1900s. It's a fascinating idea you might enjoy reading about if it is a new concept to you.
I recently discovered that the 2012 doomsday scenario is as well known among gamers as it is among traders. The April 2007 sunspot chart predicts a local high in
2012.
Wierd, eh?
"They flung mud at me," he [Chizhevsky] later wrote, "I was nicknamed not only 'sun-worshipper'—which I took for granted but also 'obscurantist' "
Labels: cycles, seasonals, sentiment
Monday, February 02, 2004
ixnay to Animals as forecasters
Cats clutched(*), Punxsutawney Phil spooked...any other species care to chime in?
Sticking with forks, geometry, and divergences...
(*) Cats=Carolina Panthers, who in the "SuperBowl indicator" system project a bearish year. Phil is the Groundhog, who alas, saw his shadow and thus projects 6 more weeks of winter.
Labels: seasonals
Wednesday, November 26, 2003
Thanksgiving, seasonality, the moon, sayonara in the wind
The air is prickly with portents! Aside from the vegetable soup of economic reports on Wednesday, the odds favor squeeking out one more run at a high. VTOreport.com (now defunct) long kept seasonality reports. Second only to the last trading day of the year, the day after Thanksgiving has the highest odds for being an up day. Couple that with the "Turn of month buying spree" and the peak in the moon gains odds... you'd start thinking back up the truck! But wait...
When there is so much good, the odds are
the rally is on its last legs. Time to say sayonara.
135m chart ES :::
Daily SPX :::
65m SPX :::
Weekly SPXLabels: cycles, seasonals
Monday, April 22, 2002
Sell in May and Go Away
"Sell in May and Go Away". It's now been said & written publically by a number of TV and print pundits. Is it going to be that easy? LOL-- too often when I have asked that question, usually in disbelief, it really
has been that easy.
So much bullish sentiment from that gap up turned out to be just another OE headfake. Today's gap down was a thumper. Price has just been sliding down the Median Lines on the 15m, 60m.
While a steady continuation down is possible, there is the 61.8% at 1335 to put the brakes on, possibly followed by a (failed) return to the gap. The high volatility is back, which seems to return mostly with the bear moves.
Labels: seasonals
Saturday, February 02, 2002
The Superbowl Indicator
Just as we put the January Effect hoopla behind us, in rolls the Superbowl Indicator! ugh. It's failed the last 3 of 4 years, but for the record,
Rams Win = Bull ||| Patriots win = Bear Even with the streak broken, 28 out of 34 ain't bad odds!!
Labels: seasonals
Market Timing - It Does Work
On one of the "Fox Business Block" shows this morning, a viewer asked if the market can be timed. Dagen-whats-her-name, the smug one, predictably said "No" and gave the usual
There is no proof, it doesn't work story. On the other hand, Jonathan Hoeing pretty much scoffed at
that idea and said that even if one were to set aside short-cycle timing, there
are times when investors with long horizons if nothing else, should just stay out.
Here's a treat for you, again from Alan Newman at
cross-currents.net. Newman makes an extremely convincing case for a Buy November/Sell April seasonality:
For more than a half century, one need only buy stocks on the last day of October and sell them the last of April to average a 15.5% return ex-dividends. On the other hand, Holding stocks from the first day of May to the last day of October has brought virtually no gain over the course of 51 years!!! Glassman notes, "The reason for the failure of market timing can be summed up in two words: 'random walk.' The phrase, made popular 30 years ago by Burton Malkiel, a Princeton economist, describes the pattern that stock prices take in the short term. It's random: You can't guess it; no one can." If the pattern shown in our picture below left is random, I will eat my website.
Those interested in the "picture" (graph) showing this should read the November 01 archive article at
cross-currents.net The question is, now that it is February, and it's been a slide since December, now what? Will this 50 year trend continue or like go the way of so many of the other things that are now in 2-signma territory?
Labels: seasonals
Thursday, January 31, 2002
As goes January, so goes the Year?
The most recent news from ECRI, and what some say
really sparked the reversal today, is that the economy is on the mend. But the guys famous for their two hands will equivocate, stating that
"the 0.2 percent rise in fourth-quarter GDP, following a 1.3 percent third quarter contraction, is so close to zero that the odds are nearly 50 percent that when it is revised, the final number could turn out to be negative."
The double-dip recession suggested by Byron Wein and Steven Roach of MSDW, among others, may end up being, errr, a technical revision to the one we just exited, so they say with their other hand waving.
Meanwhile, fabled January ends Thursday, and from today's perch, looks to be bearish.
Labels: seasonals
Tuesday, January 15, 2002
The January Effect has a
catch!!
The Ominous December low, which trumps the January effect!
Sheesh, it's always something!
(which is why trading these seasonal white sales is for the ... pros)
Labels: seasonals
Friday, January 11, 2002
In thinking back to past New Years, 2002 stands out more as a struggle with completion and resolution of events of the past year than as a beginning of fresh starts. It is little wonder as 2001, the first "real" year of the millenium, was not only ushered in with a thudding denial of promises made on future prospects during the heady giddy build-up to that brave new year 2000, but ended with a terrorizing event that shattered our concept of safety. Despite the determined market gains (and unprecedented fed liquidity injections) after 9/21, by the dawning of 2002, even the most optimistic of bulls acknowledged and
knew the market, in particular the Nasdaq, had experienced a bubble and that even if "the lows" are not to be visited, neither will prior highs be visited anytime soon.
2001 also taught folks a new trick. Like the sluggish humans we are, just as the bear was nearing satiation, people learned to short, and continue to do so as a preference, creating a whole new breed of mo-mo winners and losers. One of its effects? A range-bound market as rallies are sold and dips are bought, not just by bulls by by bears! One of the prices paid for a range-bound market is polarization of views, a struggle between top
and bottom pickers!
There has been a palpable change in chat sites these past months. Not only is volume of posting down, but participant's needs seem altered, a shift towards quick scalps and 5-minute chart focus being the biggest change. Everyone is a trader now. Investors and to some extent, even swing traders, seem to have gone underground. The ballast of the "buy and hold" crowd is now in the hands of conservative funds and institutions.
Another chat site change is the reappearance of aggression, ranging from classic bear-bull baiting to ridicule of peoples techniques and trading. This on public forums as well as a number of private and subscription groups I frequent. While these events were not unheard of, the shrinking of the communities has not always created a greater tolerance for those left standing. However the year is young and the heart ever hopeful. I remain at worst a cheerful curmudgeon!
Labels: seasonals
A good summary of one of the January Effects:
History Shows First 5 Days Can Put Bulls on Right Path Mind you, these sorts of adages bear further study. While they may "work", a sensible way to play it would be, like any trade, to use a stop loss. While the original observation by Yale Hirsch was for the Dow Jones Industrials, that these indices trade in tandem allows a liberal such as I to overlay it on the Nasdaq. Here is last year's chart, which also incorporates part two of the January effect, namely, "As goes January so goes the year".
Labels: seasonals
