Thursday, September 18, 2008
the first VIX study, circa 2003 :)
I found it, buried on an old page with wierd links etc...I've learned a bit more about web navigation since then, thank goodness!
It's at the bottom of the page, but here is the chart, from the last days at stockcharts.com, along with the words I wrote at the time. The result was, in fact, a channel with a subsequent upside breakout. Will past be prologue?
This SPX/VIX study came about because VIX wasn't on its own consistent enough to follow the 'VIX is low, time to go; VIX is high, time to buy' thing. I noticed a few things:
(1)The ratio SPX price relative to VIX channels (lowest pane)
(2)Significant channel shifts happen when price is trending up or down
(3)SPX/VIX reversals are good swing indicators, regardless of channel position
(4)'Significant' tops & bottoms are accompanied by channel shifts.
(5)The direction of the 34d, 60d MA (Bollinger Band basis) needs to shift as well to make the SPX/VIX reversals significant
6/6/2003: SPX/VIX finally got out of the gutter channel and into the center turn lane. It hit the upper channel line & is reversing, perhaps a bit like Oct02 with the perhaps significant difference that the 34d MA is turning up and price tested and moved back up off the 60d MA.
I'd look for a strong move out of the center lane to confirm more up. Otherwise, it may repeat the Apr-Dec98 center channeling, which could bode well for a trading range.If this pull back drags it back in the gutter, well, bummer! just another bear rally.
Labels: chart-analysis, market-calls-dated, sentiment
Thursday, September 04, 2003
September 3, 2003
GADS...has it really been since July that I blogged anything? Well, is it at all surprising??? The market has pretty much done nothing, nada, niente. Just jive around alot to the benefit of commission getters and slick daytrading hot shots (how quaint the language!).
Well, this is a just a "checking in" post anyway, a rewrite and post of my latest stockcharts.com blab. Here it is:
Price moved over upper channel resistance, yesterday hit the 1023 (on the weekly) and then today 1029.34 (1030 was my daily target). Thanks for the back slaps, she says no one in particular.
The question is, now what? I'm going out on a small limb and say this is close to a signficant top, not TOP perhaps, but at least one worthy of a shiver of fright. I say this largely based on the 'hyper' lime-green fork on RSI getting only the median hit where as price moved nearly to the top of it's equivalent hyper fork. Mind you, the big players have been toying with top callers for MONTHS, so I don't expect much. One other item of interest is that the OEX ratio is again rising, which indicates that my idea of the small caps having played out, if only for a spell may be in work. The roaches, which have been piled in the small caps, are starting to creep back to the safety of the larger big cap roach motel.
I remain skeptical of new-found broader bullishness (blah blah blah-- I'm tired of hearing this from myself!!). Nevertheless, the action has largely been in the small caps, which now show signs of slowing down. See the chart labelled 'OEX out of Favor' and the Small Cap Daily just below.
My bet is that the 'breakout' will be a fakeout and September will be the long awaited correction. Interestingly, in 2001, the market was rife with 'double-bottom' spotting. *This* time it is rife with top-calling, which is well supported with weak internals. We shall see....
A slightly more critical closing value, IMO, is 957, the monthly low close that launched the bull in 1998. Bears have been desperate to be proven right, while bulls have been complacent that 'this time is different'. A tug of war through mud leaving both sides more dirtied than right.
Added monthly study. Negative RSI Reversal potential on monthly. This works slowly, but the divergence is big enough to suggest the breakout may be down, however, it could continue to run, perhaps to 1050 by the looks of the weekly charts.
And here are the charts for Sept:
Daily SPX chartWeekly SPX chartMonthly SPX chartLabels: market-calls-dated
Thursday, July 17, 2003
Comments for Thursday, 17 July 2003
"RSI on daily broke lower fork parallel prior to price doing so...anticipate a deeper (965 first target) SOON. The see-saw action of late looks to continue with congestion near the prior high 1015 (updated from 990) with a move to 964 still in sight. I find the price action difficult to fathom, technically or fundamentally. This has been the frustration of what is for lack of a better description, a complex topping. I err on the side of mildly bearish as sentiment, fundamentals, and breadth do not paint, IMO, a bullish broader market.
In the bigger picture, still in view are 964 (-5.1%) to 948 (-6.6%, last swing high) possible if a simple pullback gains momentum and becomes a correction. The last swing low is @ 913 (-10%). NDX looks like a sick cat. Tough to be enthusiastic, so I'll settle for probabilities, which have swung away from more new highs.
(not much has changed on the outlook, as you might have noticed)
Labels: market-calls-dated
Sunday, June 22, 2003
Weekend Comments June 22
Weekend: Outlook not much changed. Looking for dead-cat to 1015-1023 as part of complex topping, which is still favored. A shallow correction to ~ 984 (-3.1% relative to 1015) , with 964 (-5.1%) to 948 (-6.6%, last swing high) possible if it gains momentum. I consider these somewhat shallow given what is IMO a still pricey market. The last swing low is @ 913 (-10%).
chartLabels: market-calls-dated
Monday, June 16, 2003
Monday comment
phfft! Meaning, another RSI neg diverge stick on the fire, and now what? phfft, beats me!
I will say this, there is what might be called a marginal RSI positive reveral,
** but with the neg divergence, it 'shouldn't' play out, and thus I choose to not use it. Price will tell us the truth!
**An RSI Positive Reversal is when RSI bottoms make lower lows while price bottoms make higher highs. In this case, RSI is about the same, rather than lower (the blue dashed line), thus my call of "marginal". It could mean "complex topping".
Labels: market-calls-dated
Sunday, June 15, 2003
Opening comments for week of 20 Jun 03
Looking for 953 on SPX, with confirming indications on daily & weekly: SPX RSI neg divergence, fork/prior hi/MM supt confluence, existing negative divergence CMF on daily (but still strong on weekly. The spike touch of the primary daily green fork looks to be playing itself out. (Daily chart below)
This is Options Expiration week, so narrowing volatility will make for some drama. Still favoring a complex topping, not an avalanche correction.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Friday, June 06, 2003
Friday Closing Comments
I'm concerned the spike touch of the primary daily green fork may be signalling a 'significant' pullback. There are now various supports, putting a brake on the move, in particular, the new lower trendline (lime green now at 943).
I've favored a complex topping, but even that scenario may not result in an avalanche correction, esp. with layers of support now having been constructed. It may become simply a traders market, at least through the summer.
chartLabels: market-calls-dated
Tuesday, May 20, 2003
Comments - Tuesday, 20 May for Wednesday 21 May
Bounced off support (see horizontal lines on daily chart) with a positive divergence on the 30m, 60m charts. This sez to me look for a bounce tomorrow. The bigger picture is that the by-now-glaringly-obvious wedge on the daily finally cracked. It may be too much to expect a full back-kiss of the lower trendline, but broke is broke. The questions are (1) How much of a rebound (note that RSI is now in congestion zone) (2)how much repair is needed. ie, a retest of 906 or 896 or lower?
SPX weekly & monthly price & indications look bullish but the daily indicators are flashing caution as they have become overbot a bit too quickly. The daily also shows an nexus of forks what is now a high reversal (hit the predicted 939 exactly last week, then the weekly upper fork at 948
exactly).
The season favors stagnation or even decline ('Sell in May and Go Away', which has some remarkable long term odds). Always practice good discipline and have money management near the top of your plan, second only to a positive attitude.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Wednesday, April 09, 2003
Wednesday note: 60m ES03M
864.8 is the 61.8 fib off the higher lo on 31 Mar and a 61.8 fib off same. Today's low was 864.25
Labels: market-calls-dated
Monday, April 07, 2003
Daily update, Monday mid-morning
This market is always in too much of a hurry... Already hit 904.89 (just a tad off that 906), so a pullback is likely, intraday. The Gut is saying a topping consoliation is in work, partic. as the moves appear to be the "war trade" type, ie, news based rally.
The chart below will serve as the roadmap. I'll auto update periodically.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Saturday, April 05, 2003
Comments, 5 April
The daily forks are projecting resistance at SPX 894, which if broken targets 906, or if price goes wildly bullish, 942. This is supported by standard indicators like MACD, which is in positive territory, and RSI which has managed to stay above its "range channel" (the orange horizontal lines).
On the less bullish side, RSI is also indicating an ascending triangle, which may resolve bearishly. That could happen when price hits 906 resistance, which case 895 will initially act as support. In that case, lower fork parallels target possible supports at 862 and 846.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Wednesday, March 12, 2003
Wednesday, 12 Mar
Close: The intraday reversal wiped out the bearish drop handily, and left in its wake a bullish candle bounce off the large daily fork: this is a position buy. With good follow-through, there is also a positive divergence on the short-period RSI-7. There is still risk in this market, so a tight leash is warranted, esp. as 15m chart is quite overheated & looking for a pullback. Overhead resistance will be a challenge (See daily chart). What was support during the 'congestion trap' becomes resistance. If it proves tough, yet another congestion trap could ensue. But that is purely speculation at this point. Let's see what price brings.
Earlier: Dropped another support level tier on the 15m based on the recent price range [but the reversal re-engaged the prior range]. Price is in the reversal range of the daily large fork, but a strong close (ie, not a red bar) is desired for a 'longer term' play [got this], meaning a rebound here is likely but look for divergence [so far, got this too w/RSI7] or follow-through for a position play.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Tuesday, March 11, 2003
Today's Thoughts (Tues, 11 Mar)
I modified the support levels on the 15m and 60m charts based on the recent price range. 808.75, which is 78.6% retrace of the October to December rally, is proving to be a tough nut to crack. Not surprisingly, it is also the balance point on the 15m chart.
Not a time for heroics, so will be watching for resolution of this partic. test of support (812-796) .
The 'Triangle target' on the 60m projected two target ranges: one from the start of the move and one from the break-down point. The first target was met and price bounced at the Feb 25th low and consolidated. Today's action completed the move. I think that particular "campaign" is over and something new will now be built.
That said, firmly breaking 809ish, partic. on the daily, opens the door to all sorts of bearishness across all time frames. This may not happen in one day, but it is clear lows are in the sights just now.
Added the daily chart of EWJ to watch the drama of that range resolve itself.
click for full sizeLabels: market-calls-dated
Monday, March 03, 2003
Comments, Monday 03 Mar 03
Today was one of those mystical days: 03-03-03, or if you like 3-3-3, likened by a few to 01/01/01 or 02/02/02. It was also the new moon and New Year on a few calendars. Well, it is half over and nothing of major import that I know of has served to mark it in my memory as a day holding more than usual interest.
The 15m chart reflects my on-going comments/annotations from the day session. Mixed signals with critical support in jeopardy (828 (60m) - 812.5 (Daily) in sight). The Flags-R-Us trade broke up in the AM only to quickly disappoint (ie, head fake!). As we said, 'Plenty of flag waving and little to show for it. This indecisive action isn't partic. bullish IMO, but that doesn't erase the ongoing potential for a sudden move higher, which given this climate, is likely to be sold anyway.'
The 'Triangle targets' on the 60m are experimental as it isn't a partic. 'clean' pattern IMO to measure, but they may be of use.
Of interest: There is a mild bullish bias if the Small Cap Value:Growth chart is a harbinger. The week has only just begun & a move back up is still possible. Wait for the market to confirm it so.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Tuesday, September 17, 2002
Monday night, Triple Witching Week
Soooooo, futures ramped enthusiastically on the "Iraq news", which may result in a gap open. This is a bit troubling technically only in that the task for this week's "Triple Witching" does not change, namely, to expire the most open options worthless, still meaning at some point a sell of "a high" is in order.
Nothing new about that, a lot of volatility, churning, and no appreciable progress. By way of example, noticed today that price closed right near the Sept 3, 2002 gap down area. All the strum and drang of the past few weeks and basically no action. It may be that the end of the week is yet another net no-move close.
From a sentiment point of view, Iraq's reported "no conditions inspection" relieves only one aspect of uncertainty, uncertainty that will be quickly reinstated as the haggling over the "no conditions" conditions, and more importantly, the timeline, begins, resurrecting the wall of worry.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Tuesday, August 20, 2002
August comments
The working vacation, ha!
Question du jour is "Pullback or Correction?"
As well as being quite overbot on a daily basis, price on the major indices is within some rather timid (small) bullish bisects. And being on the cusp of the Median Line and reversing, the likelihood of reaching the upper fork line is diminished.
There is great anxiety to keep the market bouyant. Also, in concert with the slo-mo slide, the best I can see for bull or bear is more chop until the greater forces are better prepared for the next assault. For amg, the next significant move is still biased towards a major correction based on monthly bearish MAs. As always, please use the link on the right to view the latest charts at stockcharts.com.
Good Luck and Good Trading!
Labels: market-calls-dated
Monday, July 29, 2002
Monday, 29 July
Looks of a counter rally within the largely still bearish forks.
Even so, what a move. Bullish sentiment SOARED today, if TV cheerleaders and pundits are any indication. Plenty of laughing too about "investors" not opening 401K statements, some of them on the advice of their financial advisers. Mary Farrell actually told Lou Dobbs "Happy days are here again". And mutual funds are 95% invested, ie have only 5% cash on hand for new purchases, no doubt confident that "new inflows" will serve to fuel their performance against the S&P.
Does the market really reward the masses? I remain skeptical about the lasting quality of today's "powerful rally" and its ability to lift all boats. Take a look at the iShares sectors, the sharpness of the reversals across the board, and the fact that, for the most part, despite the very dramatic gains, the net move is largely contained within the still dominant downtrend. Perhaps in a few months it will be within a dominant side-trend, at which point "bottoming" will be a more viable concept.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Monday, July 01, 2002
Comments for the first week in July
Chart action not suggesting "big" action up or down.
The major trend in both the NDX and SPX continues down with price having lightly touched the 8d MA and closing on the lows, which suggests a bit more down this week. Having said that, apart from the ever-present "exogenous event", there are signs of bottoming, ie, building a base as we drift sideways, albeit one still biased towards more down than up.
The SML, on the other hand, looks a bit stronger as it moved just above the 8d MA with a positive close. Remember, however, that the Russell 2000 experience "rebalancing" last week which created more action than usual.
Amazing, the first half of the year is now behind us.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Wednesday, June 26, 2002
Wednesday notes
Quite a turn-around on the NDX today. In fact, somewhat similar to the 9/21 day in price-action character. The late day rally was ostensibly the typical FOMC positioning (Greenspan left things unchanged).
What is curious is that a seemingly narrow trigger such as the WCOM "fraud" could generate such a wide-spread response, meaning I still find the action a bit "manufactured". Perhaps enough for a short-term bounce, but a revisit to lower lows is IMO more likely than not.
Also of interest is the Accum/Distribution line on the *SPX*, which shows little relative distribution relative to the 9/21 low, especially when compared to the NDX Accum/Distributuion whose low was clearly lower.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Thursday, June 20, 2002
A few comments week of 6/21
The early part of the week fulfilled the "bit more up" and that "taste of dust" is where we are today, the recent Up days having created yet another stranded island of longs.
Even today's close is just *too* technical (within .5 point of the Oct98 lows, yet another echo of markets past). Note too the increasing parity of the NDX and SPX (ie, they are both now in the 1000s and quite close in numerical value, even if the NDX is still by far the more volatile).
As mentioned before, niether the SPX nor the INDU have fully test those lows... not that they must, but again, there is a lack of closure, something left undone, about The Big Picture.
While there is little by way of recent support, I have added the Oct97 and Oct98 lows of 927 and 1063 as horizontal lines. I'll leave it to you to pull up the charts and examine each event on its own. There you will also find the "source" for the Sept gap (1126-1144).
As to the SML-- the bounce off the "green" fork was very wimpy and, again, I am not convinced of the strength of that bounce, so keep a tight reign on your positions. There was quite a bit of buying in the Mid/Small caps this week, that is relative to the Large Caps, but I continue less optimistic that the Small Caps will "save" this market at this juncture.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Friday, June 14, 2002
Comments Week ending 14 Jun 2002
Today's dramatic plunge and reversal put in a low even lower than yesterdays lower low relative to September. Additionally, there are positive RSI/Accum-Dist divergences and a weekly chart slightly higher Wm%R.
All this gives the impression of a bit more up. Like many psychological goals, once again, one is still left with a taste of dust, a sort of lack of fulfillment, in terms of sentiment. It's just *too* technical, even with the SPX having joined the ranks of breaking its psychological 1000 barrier.
There may indeed be a rally, but I'm not convinced the NDX, or the market, is through with the lows. Note that neither the SPX nor the INDU have fully test those lows... not that they must, but again, there is a lack of closure, something left undone, about The Big Picture.
While there is little by way of recent support, I have added the Oct97 and Oct98 lows of 927 and 1063 as
horizontal lines to the Daily chart. I'll leave it to you to pull up the charts and examine each event on its own. There you will also find the "source" for the
Sept gap and May low (1126:1166 and 1142).
As to the
SML-- it looks ready to have a bounce off the "green" fork. Again, I am not convinced of the strength of that bounce, so keep a tight reign on your positions.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Wednesday, June 12, 2002
So the NDX lows were tested...
Now what? The NDX put in an ever so slightly lower low relative to September, which to its credit was accompanied by a slightly *higher* RSI and as of today on the weekly chart, a slightly higher Wm%R.
Like many psychological goals, this one (testing prior significant lows) leaves a taste of dust, a sort of lack of fulfillment, in terms of sentiment. It's just *too* technical. It may produce a rally, but I'm not convinced the NDX, nor the market, is through with making lows. Note that niether the SPX nor the INDU test those lows... not that they must, but again, there is a lack of closure, something left undone, about The Big Picture.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Friday, May 03, 2002
added 5m chart to the "Current" chart set
I just realized that people who don't have a stockcharts.com subscription may not be seeing the 5m charts properly. This is something I can't test as I have a stockcharts.com cookie that will always show me subscriber features. At any rate, for now, I'll be uploading the 5m chart somewhat periodically during the day, and of course, at the end of the day.
To see the latest 5 minute chart, right-click on the first thumbnail above and open in a separate window.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Thursday, May 02, 2002
Thursday after the close
The 5m chart at stockcharts.com is more than "live price", it is dynamic in that I am, for now, sharing my far-more-active trading version. The chart below is the end of day version from Tuesday. It changes dramatically through the day as I add-subtract-change MLs as they play out or are needed by the price action.
On interesting pattern today was the completion of what I called an "expando-matic", a broadening formation. What I liked was that the set of MLs defined it, price on the tops favoring the bullish ML and on the troughs favoring the bearish ML. The bear won and later, another feature of the expando, the trough trendline extension, acted as resistance. Very "nice" (gg).
That 1228 level was once again challenged and ultimately breached on the close. This is likely to open the door to the next round of lower levels, 1219-1212, a touch of 1192-1203 then pretty much a clean shot to 1166.
Mind you, this is the big road map and largely based on a failure of the Daily Median line to prop price. Note that today price closed below that line. This was a confirmation of Monday's first test which closed below that line. My take is that this confirms a stronger bias down. But as always, I don't make the waves, Lady Market does.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Wednesday, May 01, 2002
First Day of May: Quite Dreadul
Actio - reactio, give and take, see and saw, that's what this is about. On the backside of nice is quite dreadful.
Makes you want to
really believe in that moon stuff (lol)... scroll down and see that the lowest lows of the full moon cycle decline generally falls 5 days after the full moon. Now, Friday was the Full Seed Moon, that makes today Day 5 (Note that the chart is Calendar Days not Trading Days). Statistically, there "should" be a rebound. Reminds me of that bear and bull playing pool, where the bull calls it a pre-rally decline.
[Addendum: Having said that, a "rebound" could be a dead cat. One other consideration is that this is the so-called TOM, Turn of Month, during which new incoming funds are deployed and laggards are shed. If there is such a thing this month, it may be muted.
One more observation. Some time ago I mentioned that 1228 was significant in that it is the 78.6% retrace of the 252:4816 1990-2000 bull. This is teeth gritting time for the bullish and rightly so. Should that Fibonacci support crack, at least from a geometric perspective there is little support till you get to the 1166-1203 realms, and of course, the September lows of more recent memory.
Dang commies.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Tuesday, April 30, 2002
Last Day of April: One of those "nice" days
Call me a curmudgeon, but "nice" is a word that doesn't work for me for the markets. However, it was liberally applied to the action across the board, particularly pre-lunch.
As for the NDX, it was "technical" trading at its best. Yesterday's "chubbs", or "Fat Boys" as madrone, who introduced me to equivolume, calls them, were a great harbinger of the rally, and carried over into today's move. See the updated chart just a bit lower on this page. Note too that there is yet another "chubb" sitting right at the 15m Median Line support.
Today's rally hit geometric supports of the 1316:1228 rally all the way up, covering quite a bit more ground than anticipated, but not the whole enchilada, which meets resistance at 1304-- perhaps a morsel left over for tomorrow sometime. The 60m chart is just now suggesting limited upside.
It was also a day when price snapped into the Median Lines quite "nicely". Here is a shrunk version of the 5m chart, which pretty much records the various lines that came into play as the day wore on. The end-of-day chart does not reflect this wire-mesh of history being that it tomorrows road map. Right-click to open in a separate window.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Monday, April 29, 2002
update on the SML
Small caps pulled back to just shy of the 61.8% fib on the 60m chart and closed with a bounce. That it didn't crack fib/prior low support is encouraging. Next target is to crack the upper red ML and see whether the blue or green MLs act as resistance.
Labels: market-calls-dated
78% NDX gains unwound
Looks like Miss Cleo got it right. She had opined a back-kiss of the trend line off the lows followed by a decline.
The NDX low of 1228 is also a minor geometric support, but did produce some hefty volume and the day closed at 1246. How much more of a bounce will unfold in due time.
Price on the daily chart has not fully reached the upper ML before, which indicates general weakness (duh-gg, as if you haven't noticed). This decline off 1734, which itself was a 59% rally off the September lows, is quite near finished. Having hit 1228, 78% of those gains have been unwound and the NDX is left just 12.7% off the 1089 low.
I've also added an "experimental" NDX monthly chart (image no longer available), which uses ML drawn parallel to a very long term ML, originating at 287, the April 1992 low, which itself is on the ML from the 1990 low of 252. Don't know fully what to make of this, so it is curiosity value only for now.
Finally, today's action had a bully feel to it at the end. There are hints for at least a short term reversal in the 5m and 60m Andrews, as well as the chubby Equivolume bars on the QQQ 10m chart. Unfortunately, I can't do EV on the NDX itself, but interest in the QQQ should be reasonably reflective.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Thursday, April 18, 2002
two words: beats me...
I'm baffled as to a plan for tomorrow-- price is mostly in a no-man's land. Best to watch support/resistance and see what happens. BTW, seasonality suggests a correction is at hand, perhaps after a brief rally, or perhaps after more consolidation. Small caps are IMO *way* over extended and due to pull back. I doubt that creates a rotation into the big caps. At any rate, this being OE week, not the best time to make much of what happens tomorrow.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Tuesday, April 16, 2002
Tuesday Evening comments
There are some nuts and berries for the bears: a negative RSI/price divergence on the 15m (suggesting a pullback) and daily price bumping the underbelly of the 9/11 trendline.
The bulls partied hardy with the strong gap creating a measured gap situation, the target of 1415 having been essentially reached today. A perhaps overly ambitious second target is 1442, but I anticipate strong resistance at 1425 if 1415 is breached. Nevertheless, the daily does allow for a move to 1442 if price creeps up along the underside of that trendline where it will challenge the red downtrending Andrews, which is currently at 1442.
Unfortunately, since this rally is still countertrend, at worst, the NDX may create a mini-island should this turn out to be a trap for bulls.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Gotta Have it... NOW!
The "Gotta Have it, NOW" index is at it again. Plowed right through first resistance 1371, into 1399, and looks to be wanting 1411 where on the daily there is resistance (62% fib and prior trendline). Otherwise, not much has changed, ie, no new Andrews Lines, just a shift in focus away from the lower targets to the higher targets.
Don't lose sight of the weekly, which is still down. Positive moves are still counter trend. Note too the daily, which while short term positive, has not built a base (ha ha ha, as if the NDX has ever built a base in the past few years).
Labels: market-calls-dated
Friday, April 12, 2002
Friday, April 12 close
NDX closed *right* on 1351 support. Also as anticipated, the NDX gapped open, sold, and gained to close positive on the day, however negative on the week.
Velocity of today's move was not so fevered, to its benefit. Next resistance is 1371, which if overcome suggests a move at least to 1399, where on the 60m there is a confluence of the bullish and bearish Andrews; or 1411 at best where on the daily there is resistance (62% fib and prior trendline). Next supports are 1341, 1330, 1319.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Thursday, April 11, 2002
Comments for Friday and Musings beyond
Do or die time (still!). Looking to make an short term low and then rebound. There is IMO a small chance of a gap up open, which if it happens, might well be sold. Either way, The 15m and 60m Andrews suggest a bit more down with a rebound imminent, be it tomorrow or Monday.
As to longer term, my generally bearish bias remains unchanged, although it is shaken daily with the volatility swings whose emotional content suggests a desire to go higher.
The weekly chart shows 11 of the past 14 weeks have been unrelentingly negative. The first quarter of 2001 had a similar pattern, 11 of 14 weeks negative, with the late March reversal heralding the much touted "Spring Rally".
Who knows, perhaps another in the works? This price area is a good one for a short consoliation and rally, which could work out to be "The Sell" into Autumn.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Tuesday, April 09, 2002
have you noticed...
Dunno if anyone has noticed recently, but the 1329-1399 range is a major pivot level of The Big Rally from 1990 to 2000. Using that rally hi/lo,
- the 75% level is 1399;
- the 76.4% (2*.618) level is 1329.6 (Feb02 low was 1329.9); and
- the 78.6% fib is 1228.6.
I suspect much to-ing and fro-ing around this level before the NDX gives way, partic. without any "major" fundamental catalyst, being as poor earnings, overinflated PE, etc, etc are already "priced in". What a crock of mumbo jumbo trying to reason the market is, eh?
Labels: market-calls-dated
Tuesday morning
It's a new day! Looking for the bounce to continue, albeit perhaps to form another triangle on the 15m chart as both the daily and the weekly now indicate strong resistance below prior support.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Monday, April 08, 2002
Monday Midday comment
Never, never, never underestimate the power of exuberance, never. Another straight up day. And while early this morning CNBC were hand-wringing over the idea that the market tanked on "Mid East worries" - HA. So, those worries get instantly resolved after a latte or two? Not. The fact is, "Mid East worries" have, and have had, nothing to do with the market. Near term that is. Longer term, large societal forces do, IMO, drive markets, which is why long wave study is so fascinating and so often off by a few years (gg).
At any rate, while I did think a bounce was likely, I certainly did not anticipate it would happen all in one day, and not in one day to the upper reaches of the larger Andrews on the 15m and 60m charts. more in a bit
Labels: market-calls-dated
Monday Morning Open
OK, that 30+ point gap down no doubt fluttered a few hearts here and there. Having breezed through the intermediate support of 1364, a quick look at the daily shows geometric support at 1335, which is where the red Median Line on the daily meets Fibonacci retrace. At this point, should price get to 1335, it may bounce, perhaps to 1364 as it oscillates between the blue and red forks.
Keep in mind that the last significant low was 1330, so 1330-1335 is testing that low. Should a double bottom be what is working, the "best" one is a lower low with a higher RSI. People will be looking for a "double bottom", which of course is quite obvious at this point (perhaps too obvious?).
8:50am: Note too that 1335 is the top of the
9/11 gap.
At any rate, whether price continues to trace its correcting motion or if this move was an overshoot of the more optimistic "blue" fork remains to be seen. Apart from the usual bounces, I'm biased to further correction at this point with the next significant low being 1249 with a consolidation at 1279 (ie, the range low 1249-1279).
8:15am pst: One last comment: Note that with today's drop, the weekly shows a break of the very long term Andrews, giving more credence to the "unconventional" Andrews connecting prior lows.
(See the third graph down below, right click and select "open link in new window", or select the "Customize" option box in the right menu bar.)
Labels: market-calls-dated
Thursday, April 04, 2002
Thursday Morning...
Wednesday's after hour activity was so bullish, it looked like a gap-up opening might be possible. NOT. However, price did move to the 1411 target, after which it pulled back into an anemic consolidation, as shown by this new 15m Median Line.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Wednesday evening
Here's another
short term view which supports the idea of a bit more rally before the next, possibly more sizable correction. That price managed to climb into the next higher fan puts somewhat of a brake on the decline. Alas, the move is nearly fully overbot plus the cluster of Median Lines (chart from afternoon comments) may put a damper on the move at 1406-1411. A better long entry is just around the corner, suggesting that this mini-top should be sold.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Wednesday, April 03, 2002
Wednesday Morning comment
I used to work with some very talented engineers, many deservedly "top of the class" in their field. Their intelligence, however, did very little for their impatience. You'd think with all that experience, I'd recognize the emotional pattern. "Things" don't work that way in real life.
All that to say that the Nasdaq is like those engineers, which in some ways is not at all unusual, both being high tech oriented. Whether it is a bull trend or a bear trend, this index has to do it all in one swoop. Didn't even give me time to publish the next lower short term targets, the ones beyond 1399. Sheesh!
Seems the fushia pitchfork got lost this morning. Will resurrect it; in the meantime, added 1386.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Tuesday, April 02, 2002
Tuesday comments
The swing up Monday was completely balanced (ha ha, more like destroyed) by the swing back down today, leaving the NDX at the 1410 support (off by just a few sheckels). However, this is "dark side" support as it is in the shadow of 1452, the most critical pivot of the 1089:1734 rally being unwound. Next support: 1399 (which is also the 123.6% retrace of the short rally, shown in the 15m NDX chart below). BTW, 1411 is somewhat of a minor support and is itself midway between 1399 and 1421, so I anticipate a deadcat bounce, perhaps as high as 1437 (which is somewhat near the fushia Median Line on the 15m chart).
Labels: market-calls-dated
Wednesday, March 27, 2002
Wednesday comments
NDX price is behaving as if trapped in a tight range with buyers "on strike" but sellers not desperate. Relative strength lies with the SPX/DJ complex. Seasonality favors a short oversold rally to resistance.
(The 60m chart below is still in play. Support resistance shown as horizontal lines.)
Labels: market-calls-dated
Tuesday, March 26, 2002
Tuesday comments
After that quite unexpected morning exuberance spike on the Consumer Confidence numbers, yesterday's ugly close played itself out with a late day sell-off. Technically, a case can be made for further gains as, for the NDX, price is at lower pitchfork, with confluence with various geometric supports. The SPX 60m chart is a bit more troublesome, but if anything, somewhat oversold.
There is a rather "obvious" VV on the 60m charts, with a mild positive divergence that is now playing out. The mid-point of the VV is ~1450, which continues to be a formidable battleground. The next two geometric resistances are at 1488 and 1519, with support 1411 to 1418.
The dominant trends continue to be down.
Labels: market-calls-dated
Thursday, January 17, 2002
Making an Inside Day
Looks to be making an
Inside Day across the market indices
Labels: indicators, market-calls-dated
Now what...rally and mash
Got the gap up. Now what? Rally into Friday, mash around a bit Monday. Tuesday is where the pedal hits the metal.
Labels: gaps, market-calls-dated
Wednesday, January 16, 2002
OE Kriminals
Wollie Don says to understand price action during Options Expiration "week", you have to think like a kriminal. And the trez nasty close underscores that completely. The DJ swooned to the point of curbs and the Nasdaq woke out of a 3-hour midday narcoleptic nap to stumble off the couch. The thumbscrews come off tomorrow-- maybe.
Unfortunately, the COMPQ closed at 1944, just under the 50d MA at 1951. Overshoot? The last overshoot was of the 34d MA 12/14, when the triangle
did not break. Think like a kriminal!! Gap UP in the morning... or at worst, a flat open-trend up day. The two gap downs on this chart are troublesome... but euphoria usually brings in mo-mo and Bob's your uncle, away we go.
[ removed the chart -- it may be wrecking havoc for some viewers ]
Labels: market-calls-dated, sentiment
"V" for Victory, maybe
A friend asked me for my thoughts regarding a "V" shaped recovery, etc. Here is my reply.
I just can't get excited about the shape of "this" recovery. The idea of a second recessionary wave appeals, if only because it allows a double wave of sell-off/recovery. We can still say we've had a recovery, let another debacle creep in and get sick all over again. Sort of like going back to work too early, before the cold had completely run its course.
Hussman has it right when he writes:
1. Things are really bad out there. They've got to get better sometime.
2. We've got a tingly feeling that the economy will bottom in the next quarter or two.
3. Bull markets typically begin less than 6 months before the end of a recession.
4. Therefore stocks must be in a new bull market now. Better get in before it runs away from us.
5. Stocks are rallying. That's proof that the recession will end soon.
6. In case of fresh bad news, go back to number 1.
Investors are currently tangled in pretzel logic (gg-- so was dubya!). Every hope that the economy is about to recover results in stock buying, and the stock buying is then taken as evidence that the economy is about to recover.
While this has already been said here and there, it does make for at least good writing and serves to underscore that no one knows for sure just now and speculation about the recovery is mostly rhetoric and not reality.
I would add that IMO sentiment is simply not ready to be jubilant, stock gains not withstanding. I clearly remember sentiment during the bubble being very expansive. It just isn't right now. Will it be in 6 months? Who knows. But I'm not ready to buy stocks simply on the bet that it is. Fund managers *have* to buy stocks per their fund requirements. And there are still enough bull-market oriented funds that are more than likely now trading around their positions and as their charter might not allow hedging, no doubt their brokerage house is heavily hedged.
Labels: market-calls-dated, sentiment
