Friday, December 22, 2006
Merry Christmas & a Prosperous New Year!
Labels: calendar-holidays, ensign, market-fun
Friday, November 10, 2006
Email address change, Remembrance Day, "War Cycles"
Email Address Change
Hello, all ye faithful readers! Due to some sort of hideous take-over of my email by some spambot, I've had to change my email (see sidebar). Just a heads up in the event that you don't receive a reply from me, or if your email to me is bounced. Remembrance Day
Remember the fallen soldiers this weekend, along with all that have fallen during any war, as all life is precious and each individual deserves remembrance. Peace to all beingsWar Cycles
There are countless theories as to the "why" of war
, and a consensus is probably as elusive as to the "why" of life itself.
One thing is clear, humanity has enjoyed only brief intermittent spells of peace since historians thought to keep track of such a thing. Of all the theories, one stands out, that of Alexander Chizhevsky
, whose work proposes an 11-year sunspot cycle as the trigger for "major synchronic universal military and political events", ie, wars, revolutions, insurrections, and migrations. Chiz-who, you ask? No doubt you are more familiar with the name Kondratieff
when it comes to war cycles. The K-wave
is, however, 45 to 60 years in length, far longer than the 11-year sunspot cycle studied by Chizhevsky.
Kondratieff and Chizhevsky do share a similar tragic fate: imprisonment. Kondratieff's concept that there is an an inherent self-correcting mechanism that perpetuates capitalism lead to a long imprisonment and in 1938, after a second trial, execution at the young age of 46. At the core of Chizhevsky's sunspot research was the idea that the 1917 revolution was triggered not by a liberating communist ideology, but rather, the sun. Chizhevsky spent eight years in a GULAG but did escape with his life and was "rehabilitated" in 1958. Here is a link to a short biography of Chizhevsky
Sunspots have been observed as far back as 800 BC by Chinese astronomers. The first drawing of sunspots was by the monk John of Worcester in 1128. With the advent of the telescope in 1600, the skies opened themselves to even more disciplined record keeping in search of further knowledge of the sun. Leave it to the amateur German astronomer Samuel Schwabe, however, in 1843 to discover the rise and fall of yearly sunspot counts now called the sunspot cycle, which he estimated to be ten years. Pretty good work, Sam.
Chizhevsky's original work published in 1922 juxtaposed early sunspot records, from 500 BCE to 1914, with battles, revolutions, riots, and wars in Russia and 71 other countries during the same time. His published paper presented detailed tables of all the events, summarized in this chart.
from reprint of "Physical Factors of the Historical Process" in Cycles magazine, Jan 1971, a condensed abstract of Chizhevsky's work by Vladimir P. de Smitt
Chizhevsky writes, "Each cycle according to its historical psychological signs is divided into four parts (periods):
- I: ~3 years of minimum sunspot activity & minimum populace excitability.
[5% of all events in the 500 years he researched]
- II: ~2 years, increasing sunspot activity & growth of populace excitability.
[20% of all events in the 500 years he researched]
- III: ~3 years, maximum sunspot activity & peak of populace excitability.
[60% of all events in the 500 years he researched]
- IV: ~3 years, decreasing sunspot activity & decline of populace excitability.
[15% of all events in the 500 years he researched]
Where are we now in the sunspot cycle
Using Chizhevsky's model and the sunspot chart above, we have been in a declining period wherein,
there is lack of unity in human masses and indifference to political and military questions. [...] The results of these characteristics are Lack of any desire to struggle for the right or idea, easy capitulation, desertion, etc. Historical facts illustrating this period are peace treaties, capitulations, occupations, decrease or parlimentarianism, strength of autocracies, and the ruling of minorities
Interesting, isn't it?
Being now in the trough, of course, leads to an expanding period, one of theoretical growth of excitability. This period is fascinating, giving the current landscape. Its characteristics:
New leaders appear...new programs are worked out...political and military questions arise and begin to predominate the masses. The end of this period can prove stormy, producing impatient and nervous masses. The length of the period varies greatly, depending on the length and range of the sunspot [and local factors]. One of the most important properties...is the tendency of different nations to unite for common defense or aggression and the fusion of different political groups to oppose other groups. The three phases of this period are (1) originating of new ideas in the masses; (2) grouping of these ideas (3) crystallization of one predominant idea.The paper
is fascinating on many levels and well worth a read.
From a trader's perspective, we say that it isn't the news itself so much as the reaction
to the news that should get our trading attention. Similarly, an important distinction is that Chizhevsky considered solar activity a triggering
mechanism that excited existing grievances and complaints rather than the causal
agent of the human behavior itself, ie, it is the human reaction that matters. If past is prologue,
fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy ride!
Labels: calendar-holidays, cycles, Journaling
Sunday, March 19, 2006
Happy Birthday, Sputnik!
Alan sends Sputnik a Very Boxy Happy Birthday!!
Tuesday, January 24, 2006
TSE (Tokyo Stock Ex) : Calendar
TSE : Calendar
Labels: calendar-holidays, market-buzz-gurus
Saturday, January 19, 2002
Stock Market Historical Timeline
Motivated by a question from a reader, I've been doing volume studies and being the weekend, got sidetracked and meandered back in time to the early 90s. I noticed a rather abrupt step up in OBV on the COMPX in Oct 92 and wondered if there was an "event" that pushed players into tech.
While I haven't quite found "an answer"-- lol, like there is simple one answer-- I did revisit NYSE Historical Time Line
and thought readers of this blog might enjoy the perspective.
Won't make you money tomorrow, but it's like the zest of a lemon, adds a pleasant touch to the business we are in.
Labels: calendar-holidays, Dow-INDU, market-fun
Thursday, January 17, 2002
Market closed for MLK
Market closed on Monday -- Martin Luther King Day observed.. Nasdaq Trading Schedule