Friday, October 10, 2008
VWAP, The Line
As much as I love lines-- bisects, parallels, and rabbit's cross-over trendlines-- what has to be my very most favorite line is the VWAP, which
sputnik has shared over the past few years. Take a look at his latest-- super work, sputnik!
See more of his work at
www.sputnik.to
and up close
Labels: Dow-INDU, VWAP
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
Lemon Schiff'on Cake
I added a Schiff'ed green fork to the mix...makes for some interesting price action at the lines.
I've noticed that when price crosses, but fails to stay above, one of the parallels, there will be a nearly equal situation on the return to the opposite parallel (the little yellow boxes).
Labels: bisects-forks-medianlines, Dow-INDU
Monday, October 06, 2008
the INDU loves 50% of anything
very cool bisect and fib action of the INDU, partic. the fibs at the 50% and 150% of the 1999-2002 lumpen accumumlation range. I'm not so sure it's an accumulation range, but the action resulting from it sure did take off...so someone was buying!
This is a good zone for a reaction, the proverbial dead cat. But I'm not calling a "bailout success reversal". ixnay! ixnay!
By the way, there's a sort of bisect expando-zone price is headed into...perhaps some sort of drifting up, than BLAM, smack down again?? Who knows...just what the chart looks like to me. I'm in cash and conservative. While not doomsaying, I'm also not feeling frisky and adventurously speculative about the market in here.
Labels: bisects-forks-medianlines, Dow-INDU, fibonacci
Friday, September 19, 2008
the week and the bail out
Labels: alan box, Dow-INDU
short term
Labels: alan box, Dow-INDU
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Dow stocks, relative performance
A quick and efficient chart view of these stock is provided by stockcharts.com in their
Dow Candleglance.
AIG's market cap plummeted over the last year, down 98%, and as the INDU (Dow) is a market cap weighted index, must be removed. It is being replaced with Kraft (KFT).
Here is a chart of their performance relative to the INDU, along with KFT.
Labels: alan box, Dow-INDU
Trader Vix
I could write a whole buncha words about VIX and the old adage, "VIX is high, time to buy, VIX is low, time to go". I did in fact write tons of words on this quite a few years ago, but couldn't find it with Live Search, so when I find it, I'll link it.
This is a very quick study showing VIX in the lower frame in comparison to the INDU. It is a weekly chart, which I believe is the most appropriate for a sentiment indicator like VIX. If you followed every little squiggly VIX low or high, you'd be a dairy maid, churning churning your account. The take-away are the thick orange and green line showing prior VIX/INDU high low clustering.
The first part of my fearless (ie, WAG) thesis here is that the old high (that big cluster of high VIX in 2002) is a very critical test. The current weekly close low has cracked that test, but there are two days left in the week.
I'm not at all suggesting this is an "investor" buy, although there may be a short reaction rally after three days that have set records not seen since 1998 in terms of net down.
The second part of my thesis is that VIX, like the INDU test of the old high, must test its personal high from that same period (see the shaded red box showing the gap). That likely means more downside and a hammering of that thick orange old-high test with a few more spikes, similar to the past hi-volatility period. The potential target low in this WAG is 8000-- based purely on geometric symmetry. I'd hedge that, however, with what I didn't put on that chart, which is a horizontal line under that lengthy trading range from 2004-2006, at about 9500.
I'll revisit this over the coming months.
Labels: chart-analysis, Dow-INDU, sentiment
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Report from Down Under
Labels: alan box, Dow-INDU
Saturday, October 14, 2006
INDU Daily, an RSI study
Hey, how 'bout one of my own charts? :) Here's a study with "Fisherized" rsi and a classic, but fast (7-period) rsi.
There is already a negative divergence of the rsi related to the current high with respect to the rsi from the prior high (5/10/2006). It could resolve itself two ways:
(1) bust thru the prior resistance line
(2) reverse
The inflection window for either would be 10/17 - 10/20.
The Fisherized rsi is useful for hot trends, where it will stay pinned (OB or OS). It is a "do not fade til you see the whites of their eyes" type of thing. Even a "dip" below 98 could be just that, a dip. Full disclosure: I'm still only day-trading and using Daily charts for "big picture". I gotta say, though, I kinda miss swing trading sometimes.
PS-- not going to go into the rest of the chart voodoo, except to say you'll recognize the
Alan Box (Yellow is an annual),
rabbit's xSwing "big bollie" of 180, showing big time hot trend as price is riding high above it, and VolSum extremes, the Green/Red little arrows.
Labels: chart-analysis, Dow-INDU, indicators
Tuesday, June 06, 2006
CandleGlance Charts - Dow Group
CandleGlance Charts - Dow GroupWhen I took up futures trading more seriously, I let my subscription to stockcharts.com lapse, but I've been reconsidering a renewal as it is still has some of the best "big picture" tools around, one of which being the link above, which shows a page of 'candleglance' charts of each of the Dow component companies. One can also make their own 'candleglance groups', which is quite useful for a quick view of a portfolio of charts.
Labels: Dow-INDU
Saturday, January 14, 2006
Dow 2005 End of Year, Box and Forks Update
Last November I posted the Dow with forks and box, indicating a rally would ensue. It did, and the year ended with a fitful lunge at the magical mystical whole number 11000. Here are the End of Year charts.
click to enlarge
Labels: Dow-INDU
Saturday, January 19, 2002
Stock Market Historical Timeline
Motivated by a question from a reader, I've been doing volume studies and being the weekend, got sidetracked and meandered back in time to the early 90s. I noticed a rather abrupt step up in OBV on the COMPX in Oct 92 and wondered if there was an "event" that pushed players into tech.
While I haven't quite found "an answer"-- lol, like there is simple one answer-- I did revisit
NYSE Historical Time Line and thought readers of this blog might enjoy the perspective.
Won't make you money tomorrow, but it's like the zest of a lemon, adds a pleasant touch to the business we are in.
Labels: calendar-holidays, Dow-INDU, market-fun
