actio-et-reactio
Balance is but a brief transition between extremes.
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Tuesday, September 23, 2008
$VIX hasn't backed off...
$VIX hasn't backed off from that little box it is making (on a daily basis) in the 30s. Looks to me it is coiling for another attack of the prior spike high. VIX is a sentiment indicator and the spikes are interpreted as "fear" indications. As a reminder, I'm thinking a trifecta of VIX spikes, similar to the 2002 group in the chart lower down on the page. That's a weekly chart, so it takes five of these daily charts to make one of those.
I'm thinking 2-3 weeks between each spike. The scenario are rally bumps from "rush to calm fears" money injections-- last week by Paulson and friends, and today from Warren Buffet-- paired with "no one buys that line" reversal sell-off slides. These latter bumps would be preceded by a VIX spike.
chart from stockcharts.comLabels: chart-analysis, sentiment
At last, over the rim
of the waiting earth
the moon lifted with
slow majesty
till it swung clear of the horizon and rode off,
free of moorings
- Kenneth Grahame,
The Wind in the Willows
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