Tuesday, December 09, 2003
Nice Call, amg! Now What?
Today's Updated 60m chart.
That's the trouble with successful calls, the odds begin to stack against making another one, esp. since I've been on a roll for a while here. Even so, I'm seeing trouble:
(1) Big caps getting action (Chart 2a: OEX vs. SPX)
(2) Small Cap Growth/Value ratio (Chart 2d) continues to curl up
(3) a small stochastic back-kiss (more like a kink) on the daily.
(4) an "expando" looking shape of the last 6 days on that daily, indicating internal instability. expando: successive higher highs, lower lows.
The move towards big caps out of small caps is a sign of 'liquidity safety', a mildly bearish sign. Seasonal strength lends support, ie, the fear of the strong season may be what's keeping aggressive shorting at bay. Oh, by the way, next week is Options Expiration/Triple Witching, so 'anything can happen', and more often than not it will be 'fade the momentum going into OE', ie, it could well dip enough to excite the bears, only to then reverse yet again into 1060-1090 territory next week. Keep an open mind!
Labels: chart-analysis
At last, over the rim
of the waiting earth
the moon lifted with
slow majesty
till it swung clear of the horizon and rode off,
free of moorings
- Kenneth Grahame,
The Wind in the Willows
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