Sunday, September 28, 2003
catching up...September notes
notes from the SCC page:
9/28, Sunday: Looking narrowly, there are indications of a rebound in both the daily & weekly charts: (1) Friday gapped down on somewhat lower volume than the past two days, also down; (2) the weekly chart is clearly kaput, but often price will revisit the lower trendline of a broken wedge. These two indications feed the idea of a rebound, but don't make me bullish, as evidence for overall weakness predominates. In other words, a bearish bias is warranted.
Here are the September charts:
Daily ..::..
Weekly ..::..
Monthly 9/25: Thursday after OE is often a fade of momentum going into it. However, some nasty damage on the daily RSI, albeit with support on the old range channel fork. The VIX study (end of page) shows a top, confirmed with a wedge break on the weekly chart. Even with a higher weekly close-- which would keep the bull breathing a bit longer-- RSI has been weakened. I'm flat and cautious here.
9/19: Triple Witching, OE, just another day at the casino. Does anyone else see a wedge (bearish) on the weekly? Note: If price does not reach the upper 'navy blue' fork on daily (over the next few days), that is a likely failure and 1050 will be saved for another bullish campaign.
9/18: Broke congestion w/a MACD kiss and move into 1930+ range. 1050 is on both daily/weekly charts. SPX/VIX (last chart) entering 'overbot' area.
9/18: I asked earlier, Will September be the long awaited correction? It looks very bullish right now, but there are 'overbot' indications. However, cautious traders are not the same as bearish. The month is not yet finished, so the bullish monthly chart is still only potential.
9/12: There is 'congestion' support in the trap area, which if fails, targets the 1000-1004 area. If that breaks, 984 is back in view.
Notes: the anticipated Acc/Dist on the Small Caps crossed, but may now consolidate with a downward bias; the RSI Neg Diverg on the SPX daily unfolded and may find support on the longer term RSI fork (this support also broke); price was turned back at the 'big picture' 1021 61.8% fib, but held a key support at 1009. The 'fork trap' looked to contain further downside-- and it did. See 9/18 comments.
On the bullish side is a 'hyper fork' potential, considerable volume and at best a stabilizing fundamental picture. On the bearish side is that this market hasn't taken a breather, the small caps are exhausted, and the safety of big caps is just that: safety and not particularly growth.
Labels: chart-analysis
