Friday, November 22, 2002
addendum...
Lest the smattering of readers who come here think I have turned Big Picture Bullish perish the thought. Seeing upside potential doesn't mean I'll buy a ticket.
Let me take a tangent. There is a joke among guru-watchers telling of the seer who puts out two scenarios, like the Elliott Wave practitioners, who have a Preferred Count and an Alternate Count. The joke is that for the seer, the tea leaves say "looks higher, could go lower". In other words, the seer is covering all the bases and rather than take a stand, is hedging so as not to be wrong.
There is some truth in that, after all, at the end of the day, the price is either higher or lower than it was yesterday. But there is also a bias, namely, that there is only one answer and that it is either right or wrong. But what if my view is only of the next hour? or of the next month? or year?
I'm not one for the grey-ing of issues, but there are some things that must be put into context. How you interpret information is a function of your own internal needs. The trigger is pulled only by you. Take inputs from those who tell *their* truth truthfully, but most importantly, pay attention to yourself, your own truth. If you're not sure what it is, enjoy the search as it is an ever changing one (grasshopper - hee hee hee).
And back on track. I'll stress that I like Median Lines because they reflect actio-reactio, balance, probabilities. Learning to think in probabilities and not absolutes is a good start to building a longer career trading the market.
At last, over the rim
of the waiting earth
the moon lifted with
slow majesty
till it swung clear of the horizon and rode off,
free of moorings
- Kenneth Grahame,
The Wind in the Willows
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