Friday, June 07, 2002
Well, so INTC is the scape goat for this nasty move down. Ha. It will do for a day and for those like need a reason. For the memory banks, Nasdaq100 gapped down from 1160 to 1111.
OK, the cat barely bounced...and dropped like a rock. No support at the last low (1144) or even the chunk of gap from last September, making 1089 the next support, other than a quick tap of lower part of that last gap (1125) but that's likely to be the best of the bullishness while the big turgid move works itself into the larger market.
Yest, 6/6: The NDX is on its final leg to the test of the Sept lows, which have loomed largely as a sort of psychological "capitulation" mark. There may be a dead cat left in the NDX before another gust down.
Four SML observations stand out: (1) Clearly the previous trend is broken, but we've known that for some time. (2) The last pullback produced a lower low, which while not bad on its own, suggests more weakness than say the February pullback (3) The blue fork has been breached to the downside, but stopped by the black forks. This last point leads to (4), namely, that any rebounds may ultimately be stopped by the blue fork. In short, I'm far less optimistic that the Small Caps will "save" this market.
At last, over the rim
of the waiting earth
the moon lifted with
till it swung clear of the horizon and rode off,
free of moorings
- Kenneth Grahame,
The Wind in the Willows