Friday, March 01, 2002
high spirits abound
I wish I were in as high spirits as the market has been! My brain is drained from an excess of computer problems this week (incl. breakdown not only of OS, but of network h/w)... So, I've mostly watched from the bleachers being too distracted to concentrate.
Nevertheless, I will make bold to say that despite the high spirits a few days this week (both up AND down) the NDX does not convince me of its new found bullish prowess.
Simpleton here has watched the gap/fib action and the prior essentially single repulse from the 50% had been quite puzzling. Now that it is being revisited, and with today's cash close 1435.6 just shy of filling the gap, I am heartened that distribution is still in place and that the April rally analog is not dead. I look at the open/close values of gaps, not just the hi/lo tails. The gap range is 1421:1436.7.
So, while I'm loathe, given my mental state, to give a likely target for the top of the NDX rally, I see a bit of overshoot and then a reversal, maybe even as early as Monday (time is not my strong suit). My crayon Andrews tend to validate this view. There was a similar phase during the April rally when "double bottom" calls were the vogue. The reaction rallies were strong, but in the end did not take out the May 22 high.
At last, over the rim
of the waiting earth
the moon lifted with
till it swung clear of the horizon and rode off,
free of moorings
- Kenneth Grahame,
The Wind in the Willows