Friday, January 11, 2002
In thinking back to past New Years, 2002 stands out more as a struggle with completion and resolution of events of the past year than as a beginning of fresh starts. It is little wonder as 2001, the first "real" year of the millenium, was not only ushered in with a thudding denial of promises made on future prospects during the heady giddy build-up to that brave new year 2000, but ended with a terrorizing event that shattered our concept of safety. Despite the determined market gains (and unprecedented fed liquidity injections) after 9/21, by the dawning of 2002, even the most optimistic of bulls acknowledged and
knew the market, in particular the Nasdaq, had experienced a bubble and that even if "the lows" are not to be visited, neither will prior highs be visited anytime soon.
2001 also taught folks a new trick. Like the sluggish humans we are, just as the bear was nearing satiation, people learned to short, and continue to do so as a preference, creating a whole new breed of mo-mo winners and losers. One of its effects? A range-bound market as rallies are sold and dips are bought, not just by bulls by by bears! One of the prices paid for a range-bound market is polarization of views, a struggle between top
and bottom pickers!
There has been a palpable change in chat sites these past months. Not only is volume of posting down, but participant's needs seem altered, a shift towards quick scalps and 5-minute chart focus being the biggest change. Everyone is a trader now. Investors and to some extent, even swing traders, seem to have gone underground. The ballast of the "buy and hold" crowd is now in the hands of conservative funds and institutions.
Another chat site change is the reappearance of aggression, ranging from classic bear-bull baiting to ridicule of peoples techniques and trading. This on public forums as well as a number of private and subscription groups I frequent. While these events were not unheard of, the shrinking of the communities has not always created a greater tolerance for those left standing. However the year is young and the heart ever hopeful. I remain at worst a cheerful curmudgeon!
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